Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 041439
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  56
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Oct 04 2026
 
Nolo appears to have completed an eyewall replacement cycle 
overnight. The satellite presentation has steadily improved over the 
past several hours, with the eyewall re-consolidating and a 
symmetric ring of deep convection now completely wrapping around the 
center. Over the past 6 hours, the eye has cleared drastically, 
transitioning from a ragged appearance to a distinct, circular, 
warming eye with temperatures near 15C. Objective satellite 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have begun to respond to this 
improvement, and are in the 94-97 kt range. Based on the improved 
satellite presentation and these objective estimates, the initial 
intensity is raised to 100 kt.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/16 kt. Nolo 
is expected to continue on a generally westward heading for the next 
several days, steered by a subtropical ridge located to the north of 
the cyclone. On the current forecast track, the system will cross 
the International Date Line into the western Pacific basin within 
the next 12 hours. By the end of the period, Nolo is forecast to 
reach the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge and begin to 
slow down. Track forecast uncertainty increases at that time, as the 
guidance diverges regarding exactly when and where the cyclone will 
slow down and turn north in response to a mid-latitude trough 
approaching from Japan. The latest NHC track forecast has been 
shifted slightly southward, trending toward the HCCA and GDMI aids.
 
Nolo remains situated within a highly favorable environment for 
strengthening during the next 24 hours, characterized by warm sea 
surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Given the recent 
structural improvements noted in satellite imagery, the official NHC 
intensity forecast indicates further intensification and lies above 
the intensity guidance in the short term. Between 24-36 h, the 
cyclone is forecast to move into a region of increasing shear and 
into a drier mid-level airmass. However, recent satellite imagery 
indicates that Nolo is taking on annular characteristics. This 
structural evolution should make the inner core more resilient to 
the impending hostile conditions by limiting dry air entrainment, 
likely resulting in a slower initial rate of weakening than would 
otherwise be expected. Ultimately, the combination of strong shear 
and very dry air will take its toll, causing the system to steadily 
weaken beyond 48 hours. Given these structural and environmental 
conditions, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the high side of 
the guidance envelope. This prediction is closest to the hurricane 
regional models, but still above those, before trending back toward 
the consensus intensity aids by the end of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 23.8N 178.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 24.3N 178.9E  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 24.9N 175.8E  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 25.0N 172.4E  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 25.0N 168.4E  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 25.3N 164.0E   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 25.9N 160.0E   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 26.9N 153.1E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 28.6N 150.0E   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly