Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 022035
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  49
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Oct 02 2026
 
Nolo's eye has come and gone in visible and infrared satellite 
imagery since the early morning hours. Based on the current 
structure, HFO and JTWC have both provided Dvorak Current Intensity 
estimates of 4.0/65 kt, and a UW-CIMSS DMINT estimate based on a 
1805 UTC GMI microwave pass yielded an estimate of 66 kt. Nolo is 
therefore upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.

Nolo's motion is now slowly westward, or 280/5 kt, due to weak 
ridging to the north of the hurricane. A mid-level area of high 
pressure located west of the International Date Line is expected to 
build eastward, re-establishing itself to the north of Nolo and 
causing the cyclone to accelerate significantly--moving 3 times 
faster than it is now--by late Saturday. This fast, mostly-westward 
movement is then expected to continue through the middle of next 
week, with Nolo crossing the International Date Line between 48-60 
hours. Model spread is remarkably narrow, which increases forecast 
confidence in Nolo's track, and the new NHC forecast is very 
similar to the previous prediction.
 
There is still some moderate deep-layer westerly shear affecting 
Nolo, but that shear is expected to decrease during the next 6-12 
hours and become negligible by this time tomorrow. While the shear 
lessens, Nolo is expected to move over slightly warmer waters, and 
the environment is forecast to become more divergent aloft. These 3 
factors could lead to a period of significant strengthening. 
The one main negative factor is mid-level moisture around the 
hurricane, which will only be in the 40 percent range. That said, 
DTOPS, one of NHC's rapid intensification (RI) predictors, is now 
showing a probability of RI over 50 percent during the next 24 
hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is now explicitly showing the 
possibility of RI, and it is just below the highest guidance, which 
include HCCA, the Florida State Superensemble, and HAFS-A and -B. 
Model guidance is unanimous in showing a weakening trend after day 
3, generally in response to an increase in deep-layer northerly 
shear.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 23.3N 167.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 23.3N 169.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 23.3N 172.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 23.4N 175.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 24.0N 178.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 24.7N 178.0E  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 25.3N 174.8E  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 25.7N 167.2E   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 26.9N 159.1E   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg