A strong non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form by Sunday night off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle of next week, and some subtropical development is possible during this time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

Pacific

· issued Oct 17, 11:20 PM UTC

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Trudy, located offshore of southwestern Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico Area of Interest

48 h low · 0%

7-day high · 80%

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico within a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward, well south of Mexico.

Central Pacific

· issued Oct 17, 11:20 PM UTC

No formation expected through 7 days.

Tropical Weather Discussion

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Atlantic · Oct 17, 10:59 PM UTC

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the central Bay of Campeche. Near storm-force winds are present offshore Veracruz, Mexico, where seas are up to 20 ft. A broader area of gale force winds and very rough seas are present behind the front offshore Mexico from Tampico to the central Bay of Campeche. These gales will continue into Mon morning, before the cold front clears the basin and winds begin to diminish. Frequent gusts in excess of gale force are occurring within 60 nm of the NE Gulf coast, with other areas behind the front having widespread strong to near gale-force north winds, along with rough seas. Peak seas may exceed 25 ft in the Bay of Campeche late tonight and Sun, with rough seas prevailing across portions of the basin through Tue.

Eastern Pacific · Oct 17, 09:23 PM UTC

Hurricane Trudy is centered near 17.5N 105.0W at 17/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are 34 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. A general NW motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will pass near the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico tonight into Sunday. Some strengthening remains possible this evening, followed by weakening beginning by Sunday. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico through the weekend. These swells will cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain.