Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 291446
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
Nolo is experiencing the effects of moderate-to-strong vertical 
wind shear, as its convective organization has continued to degrade 
this morning. The deep ring of convection has collapsed, and cloud 
tops have warmed. Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates from JTWC, HFO, and UW-CIMSS have continued to decrease, 
now ranging between 95 and 102 kt. Based on the degrading satellite 
appearance, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this 
advisory. A scatterometer pass that arrived shortly after the 
previous advisory was helpful in refining the initial wind radii.

The system has slowed down since the previous advisory and has 
turned more northward, with an estimated initial motion of 355/8 kt. 
A continued northward motion with a decreasing forward speed is 
anticipated today. In about 24 h, the system is forecast to 
decelerate significantly as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level 
trough. Following this interaction, a mid-level ridge is expected to 
build to the northwest of Nolo, resulting in a sharp westward turn. 
There continue to be along-track differences among the guidance. 
The better performing HCCA and Google DeepMind models are slower 
than the global models and depict a much slower turn and 
re-acceleration. Towards the end of the forecast period, Nolo is 
expected to move generally westward across the Papahanaumokuakea 
Marine National Monument. The latest NHC track forecast has been 
slowed down and shifted slightly to the left of the previous, 
trending toward the GDMI and HCCA aids.

Moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue 
impacting Nolo for the next 48 hours or so, with dry mid-level air 
also entraining into the circulation. This should result in a steady 
weakening trend, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm 
during that time. The shear is expected to relax in about 48 to 60 h 
while the system remains over warm sea surface temperatures. 
However, the dry mid-level environment may inhibit the rate of 
restrengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these 
trends, showing steady weakening in the short term before the system 
restrengthens back into a hurricane by the end of the forecast 
period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 20.5N 164.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 21.7N 164.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 22.3N 164.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 22.2N 165.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 22.0N 165.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 22.3N 166.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 22.6N 167.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 23.0N 169.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 23.9N 175.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly