Advisories

000
WTPA32 PHFO 230844
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number  11
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2026
 
...DEPRESSION REDEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 153.7W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the 
progress of this system.  A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will 
likely be required for a portion of the state on Wednesday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Fifteen-C was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 153.7 
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph 
(19 km/h) and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is 
expected for the next day or so. A sharp turn to the north or 
north-northeast is expected on Thursday, with this motion continuing 
through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the depression 
is expected to approach the Big Island of Hawaii on Friday, as a 
hurricane.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Steady strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to be 
a tropical storm later today and a hurricane in a couple of days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the 
can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header 
HFOTCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: There is an increasing risk of wind impacts in the Hawaiian 
Islands regardless of the exact track of this system.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression 
Fifteen-E will begin to affect the eastern portions of Hawaii 
Wednesday. Periods of heavy rain are likely to continue across the 
Big Island and Maui through the weekend. Life-threatening, 
catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in 
areas of steep terrain. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser 
rainfall totals are expected, with isolated flooding possible.
  
SURF:  Swells generated by Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are 
expected to reach the east and south-facing shores of the Big Island 
on Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. 
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi