Advisories

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WTPA42 PHFO 270255
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Sep 26 2026

Nolo is sending mixed signals about its organization in both
satellite and aircraft data at this time. In satellite imagery,
the central convective tops have cooled and become more symmetric 
around the center. However, as this has happened, the eye has 
become less distinct. In aircraft data, the Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter reported that the central pressure has dropped to 
near 969 mb.  However, the maximum 700 mb flight-level winds 
reported so far are 77 kt, and the aircraft reported that the 
eyewall was ragged. Given the conflicting signals, the initial 
intensity is held at a somewhat uncertain 80 kt.
 
The hurricane is now moving faster toward the west or 265/7 kt. A 
faster westward motion is expected for the next 24 h, keeping the 
core of the hurricane well south of the main Hawaiian Islands.  
After that, Nolo should turn northwestward between a ridge to the 
east and a mid- to upper-level low to the northwest of Hawaii, with 
this motion continuing until about the 72 h point. The dynamical 
models suggest the circulation of Nolo may merge with this low, 
with the resulting system continuing westward on the south side of 
a mid-level ridge to the north. The new forecast track is similar 
to the previous track and lies near the center of the track 
guidance envelope.

Nolo is moving westward toward a pocket of higher ocean heat content
southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and the vertical wind shear is
forecast to weaken during the next 24-36 h. This should allow some 
strengthening during this time, and the new intensity forecast 
follows the regional hurricane models in forecasting Nolo to become 
a major hurricane.  It should be noted that while the SHIPS models 
are not as bearish on intensification as they were last night, they 
keep the system well below major hurricane strength.  After 36 h, 
Nolo should weaken due to increasing southwesterly shear caused by 
the aforementioned upper low/trough.  By 96-120 h, the GFS and 
ECMWF forecast Nolo to merge with the upper-level low, but do so in 
a way that leaves the tropical cyclone core more or less intact and 
allow the storm to maintain its intensity. This is supported 
by the regional hurricane models. Thus, the intensity forecast 
keeps the system as a hurricane at those times. Overall, the new 
intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast.
 
Now that Nolo is moving faster toward the west, the Tropical Storm 
Warning has been discontinued for Hawaii County, and the Tropical 
Storm Warning has been discontinued for Maui County.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Nolo is moving westward away from the Big Island of Hawaii, and 
the tropical cyclone watches and warnings for Hawaii have been 
discontinued. However, strong and gusty winds are expected for all 
of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend, and interests in the 
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Nolo.
 
2. Rain bands will continue through tonight across the Big Island 
and Maui, though the showers are expected to gradually diminish in 
intensity and frequency through Sunday. Additional areas of flooding 
and mudslides will be possible, especially in areas of steep terrain 
across the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island and 
eastern Maui.
 
3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big
Island's coastline through the weekend.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 16.7N 156.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 16.6N 157.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 16.9N 159.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 17.7N 161.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 19.2N 162.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  29/1200Z 20.8N 163.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 22.4N 164.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 23.1N 166.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 23.1N 169.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven