Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 011452
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

Nolo has made a bit of a recovery overnight.  Satellite imagery 
shows that bursts of deep convection are forming in the northwestern 
quadrant of the storm, with some outflow becoming apparent as well.  
While conventional satellite estimates remain barely at 
tropical-storm strength, scatterometer data from overnight a bit 
surprisingly showed winds over 45 kt.  Given the low bias of the 
instrument, the current intensity is set to 50 kt.

The storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest.  Nolo should creep 
to the west-northwest or northwest today while it becomes under the 
influence of a distant high located over the subtropical 
west-central Pacific.  This high is forecast to strengthen 
significantly during the next few days, which is likely to steer 
Nolo much faster to the west or west-northwest this weekend into 
early next week.  The new forecast is shifted a little to the north 
in the short-range to come into agreement with the various consensus 
estimates, then is very similar to the previous advisory at long 
range.  

Little change in strength is expected for about the next day while 
vertical wind shear remains high within a dry environment.  However, 
a notable change occurs this weekend as Nolo will move on the 
northern side of an upper-level low, causing shear to drop off while 
it moves over much warmer waters.  This change should allow Nolo to 
markedly strengthen by late this weekend, and the storm could be 
close to a major hurricane again by the time it nears the Dateline 
in 3-4 days.  This is the solution shown by almost all of the 
regional hurricane models, and the guidance trends from the last 
cycle are upward.  Thus, the intensity forecast is increased from 
the previous one, primarily due to the initial wind speed in the 
first day or so, then raised at longer range given the higher model 
guidance. I should mention that this forecast could be too 
conservative in a few days given the forecast upper-level wind 
pattern.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 21.9N 165.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 22.3N 166.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 22.9N 166.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 23.1N 168.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 22.9N 170.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 23.0N 173.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 23.4N 177.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 25.0N 176.2E   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 25.8N 169.0E   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake