Advisories

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115 advisories on record

Warning 080 Oct 10, 03:00 PM UTC
Warning 079 Oct 10, 09:00 AM UTC
Warning 078 Oct 10, 03:00 AM UTC
Warning 077 Oct 9, 09:00 PM UTC
Warning 076 Oct 9, 03:00 PM UTC
Warning 075 Oct 9, 09:00 AM UTC
Warning 074 Oct 9, 03:00 AM UTC
Warning 073 Oct 8, 09:00 PM UTC
Warning 072 Oct 8, 03:00 PM UTC
Warning 071 Oct 8, 09:00 AM UTC
Warning 070 Oct 8, 03:00 AM UTC
Warning 069 Oct 7, 09:00 PM UTC
Warning 068 Oct 7, 03:00 PM UTC
Warning 067 Oct 7, 09:00 AM UTC
Warning 066 Oct 7, 03:00 AM UTC
Warning 065 Oct 6, 09:00 PM UTC
Warning 064 Oct 6, 03:00 PM UTC
Warning 063 Oct 6, 09:00 AM UTC
Warning 062 Oct 6, 03:00 AM UTC
Warning 061 Oct 5, 09:00 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 057 Oct 4, 08:38 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 056 Oct 4, 02:39 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 055 Oct 4, 08:37 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 054 Oct 4, 02:53 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 053A Oct 3, 11:43 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 053 Oct 3, 08:40 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 052A Oct 3, 05:44 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 052 Oct 3, 02:37 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 051A Oct 3, 11:41 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 051 Oct 3, 08:37 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 050A Oct 3, 05:36 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 050 Oct 3, 02:36 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 049A Oct 2, 11:38 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 049 Oct 2, 08:35 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 048A Oct 2, 05:49 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 048 Oct 2, 02:47 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 047A Oct 2, 11:44 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 047 Oct 2, 08:34 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 046A Oct 2, 05:35 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 046 Oct 2, 02:37 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 045A Oct 1, 11:32 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 045 Oct 1, 08:44 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 044A Oct 1, 05:54 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 044 Oct 1, 02:52 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 043A Oct 1, 11:40 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 043 Oct 1, 08:44 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 042A Oct 1, 05:38 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 042 Oct 1, 02:45 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 041A Sep 30, 11:31 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 041 Sep 30, 08:40 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 040A Sep 30, 05:37 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 040 Sep 30, 03:01 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 039A Sep 30, 11:47 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 039 Sep 30, 08:37 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 038A Sep 30, 05:47 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 038 Sep 30, 02:36 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 037A Sep 29, 11:37 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 037 Sep 29, 08:37 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 036A Sep 29, 05:46 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 036 Sep 29, 02:46 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 035A Sep 29, 11:45 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 035 Sep 29, 08:51 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 034A Sep 29, 05:43 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 034 Sep 29, 02:44 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 033A Sep 28, 11:48 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 033 Sep 28, 08:49 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 032A Sep 28, 05:45 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 032 Sep 28, 02:53 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 031A Sep 28, 11:43 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 031 Sep 28, 08:49 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 030A Sep 28, 05:48 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 030 Sep 28, 02:32 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 029A Sep 27, 11:49 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 029 Sep 27, 08:52 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 028 Sep 27, 03:00 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 027 Sep 27, 08:44 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 026 Sep 27, 02:55 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 025A Sep 26, 11:49 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 025 Sep 26, 08:49 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 024A Sep 26, 05:55 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 024 Sep 26, 02:57 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 023A Sep 26, 11:47 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 023 Sep 26, 08:51 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 022A Sep 26, 05:53 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 022 Sep 26, 02:48 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 021A Sep 25, 11:37 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 021 Sep 25, 08:56 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 020A Sep 25, 05:58 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 020 Sep 25, 02:53 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 019A Sep 25, 11:52 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 019 Sep 25, 08:50 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 018A Sep 25, 05:48 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 018 Sep 25, 02:52 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 017A Sep 24, 11:52 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 017 Sep 24, 08:56 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 016A Sep 24, 06:00 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 016 Sep 24, 02:50 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 015A Sep 24, 11:48 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 015 Sep 24, 08:43 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 014A Sep 24, 05:42 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 014 Sep 24, 02:52 AM UTC
CPHC Advisory 013A Sep 23, 11:44 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 013 Sep 23, 08:56 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 012 Sep 23, 02:49 PM UTC
CPHC Advisory 011 Sep 23, 08:44 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Sep 16, 02:31 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Sep 15, 08:41 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Sep 15, 02:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Sep 15, 08:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Sep 15, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Sep 14, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Sep 14, 02:34 PM UTC
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 141434
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026
 
The center of the tropical depression remains on the western edge of
the convection due to ongoing westerly shear. The most recent TAFB
Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, while the UW-CIMSS objective intensity
estimates are in the range of 27-34 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity is being held at 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The tropical depression continues to move west-southwest
with an initial motion of 240/8 kt. This seems to be due to a
combination of the nearby convection and the overall system being
steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the northwest. This ridge
should continue to be the main steering flow for the cyclone and
increase overall forward speed later in the forecast period. The
current NHC forecast track has been adjusted slightly right of the
previous track and just a bit slower than before. The current
forecast track is closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) forecast aids.
 
The environment is not expected to be very conducive for too much
strengthening due to the moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear
advecting some dry air into the center of the depression. Despite
this, the intensity guidance shows the possibility of some 
strengthening during the next 24 h. Based on this, the NHC 
intensity forecast calls for some slight strengthening. While there 
is a period between 24-48 h where the shear should weaken, the 
guidance suggests that the cyclone will not be able to take 
advantage of this period to strengthen. After 48 h, the cyclone 
should weaken as it gets lost within the larger monsoon trough. The 
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the prior advisory, but keeps 
35 kt intensity for a little while longer.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 16.3N 119.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 16.1N 121.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 15.9N 123.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 15.4N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 15.3N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 15.2N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z 15.2N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven
 
NHC Advisory 003 Sep 14, 08:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Sep 14, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Sep 13, 08:36 PM UTC