Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 271500
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Sep 27 2026
 
Nolo's structure has continued to improve over the last several 
hours with the eye becoming better defined as as cloud tops have 
cooled around the center of the hurricane. An Air Force Reserve Unit 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is sill investigating Nolo at this time 
and so far have found peak flight level winds around 92 kt, which 
would support for an intensity around 85 kt. There was also a 
dropsonde in the northwest eyewall that observed a 500 m layer 
average of 104 kt. In addition, the objective intensity estimates 
are in the range of 87-109 kt. With the current improvement in the 
stucture of Nolo, the lowering minimum pressure observed with the 
aircraft, and assuming higher flight-level winds exist in the north 
eyewall where the aircraft has not yet sampled, the initial 
intensity has been raised to 90 kt for this advisory. 
 
The hurricane is moving mainly west-southwestward or 250/9 kt. Nolo 
is expected to continue to move on the southwestern side of a 
mid-level ridge for the next day or so. Afterwards, the cyclone 
should turn northwestward due to the influence of a mid- to 
upper-level low. At the end of the forecast period, Nolo should 
then turn back to the west again, as the hurricane rotated around 
the northern side of the low. The official track forecast is 
similar to the previous one just some minor adjustments based on the 
HCCA and the GDMI forecast aids. 

The cyclone is expected to remain in a favorable environment with 
low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. This should allow 
for continued intensification for the next 24 hours, and Nolo is 
forecast to become a major hurricane in the next 12 h and peak as a 
category 4 hurricane. After 48 h, gradual weakening is expected 
as the SHIPS model outputs indicate that wind shear will increase in 
the 48-96 h period due to the interaction with the upper-level 
low. Beyond 96 h, the wind shear may relax again and this could 
allow some restrengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is still on 
the high end of the guidance envelope, but slightly under the HCCA 
and some of the hurricane regional models. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Strong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian 
Islands through today, and interests in the Hawaiian Islands should 
continue to monitor the progress of Nolo.
 
2. Heavy rain and flooding threats from Nolo are diminishing across 
the Hawaiian Islands as the storm continues to move to the 
west-southwest away from the Islands.
 
3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big 
Island's coastline through today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 16.2N 158.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 16.3N 159.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 17.0N 161.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 18.4N 162.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 20.3N 163.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 21.8N 163.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 22.4N 164.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  01/1200Z 22.6N 165.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/1200Z 23.0N 168.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin