Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 280849
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 27 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that Nolo has continued to intensify, 
with a symmetrical Central Dense Overcast of very cold cloud tops 
surrounding the 30 n mi diameter eye.  The eye temperatures have 
warmed to as much as 21 deg C.  The advisory intensity is set at 
135 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC 
and PHFO Honolulu and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.  The 
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants of the 
hurricane.  Geostationary and microwave imagery show that Nolo 
continues to lack outer convective banding features, and is 
therefore maintaining the characteristics of an annular hurricane.

Nolo continues to move west-northwestward at around 290/10 kt while 
being steered by the flow on the south side of a mid-tropospheric 
ridge.  A mid- to upper-level cyclone located about 10 degrees to 
the northwest of the hurricane is expected to induce a turn toward 
the northwest and north within the next 36 hours. Then, Nolo should 
decelerate and turn westward while moving around the circulation of 
the cyclone and merging with it.  A mid-level ridge building to the 
northwest of Nolo should eventually cause it to turn westward late 
in the forecast period.  The official track forecast is very similar 
to the one from the previous advisory, and remains in good agreement 
with the HCCA and Google DeepMind guidance.

The hurricane has been situated in an environment that is quite 
conducive for strengthening, with low vertical wind shear and 
sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures.  This regime should 
persist for at least the next 12 hours or so.  However, the global 
models indicate that vertical shear over Nolo should increase 
substantially by Tuesday.  Therefore, the hurricane should begin 
weakening within 24 hours or so.  Nonetheless, Nolo's annular 
structure could result in a slower rate of weakening than seen in 
typical hurricanes.  In 4-5 days, the models suggest a more 
favorable upper-level flow pattern, which could result in some 
re-strengthening.  The official intensity forecast remains at the 
high end of the model guidance.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 16.5N 161.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 17.5N 162.5W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 19.2N 163.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 21.0N 163.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 22.4N 163.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  30/1800Z 22.8N 163.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 23.0N 164.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 23.6N 166.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 24.0N 169.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch