Advisories

000
WTPA32 PHFO 241449
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number  16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
...NOLO STRENGTHENING...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BEGIN LATE TODAY OVER THE BIG ISLAND...

 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 156.2W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. 

Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system as additional watches or warnings 
could be required.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 156.2 West. Nolo is
stationary but is expected to move to the north or north-northeast 
later today through Friday, followed by a sharp westward turn by 
Saturday in the vicinity of the Big Island.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane by 
tonight and could become a major hurricane by the weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nolo can be found in the can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO
header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area starting
as early as Friday night.
 
RAINFALL: For the Big Island, Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 
15 to 20 inches with maximum amounts of 35 inches.  This
rainfall could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For Maui, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 
20 inches are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides 
are possible, especially in areas of high terrain. 

Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 
to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with 
isolated flooding possible. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic 
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east
and south-facing shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading
westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake