Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 282049
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026

Westerly wind shear and increasing mid-level dry air are beginning 
to take a toll on Nolos structure this morning. Recent visible and 
infrared satellite imagery show a sharp gradient along the western 
side of the cold cloud tops surrounding the eye, while cloud tops 
are warming just east of the increasingly ragged eye. In addition, 
recent GPM GMI microwave imagery suggests that the southeastern 
portion of the eyewall may be beginning to open up. Recent 
subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have also 
decreased slightly, ranging from 123-127 kt. Given the degraded 
satellite presentation and the lower intensity estimates, the 
initial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory.

Nolo is beginning to turn toward the northwest as it moves along the 
southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high centered 
north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The hurricane is forecast to 
turn toward the north on Tuesday as an intensifying upper-level low 
approaches from the northwest. The track forecast becomes more 
complex by midweek, as the strength and track of this low will play 
a significant role in determining Nolos subsequent motion. A 
stronger low would likely be less progressive and pull Nolo farther 
north, while a weaker and more transient low would favor a faster 
turn toward the west. Recent model guidance has trended toward the 
latter solution, and this trend is reflected in the updated 
forecast. The official NHC track forecast has therefore been 
adjusted to the left of the previous forecast and is slightly slower 
after 36 h, bringing it closer toward the latest HCCA and GDM 
guidance.

A gradual weakening trend is expected over the next day or so as 
Nolo encounters increasing westerly wind shear and cooler sea 
surface temperatures. Beyond 24 h, the approaching upper-level low 
is expected to produce significantly stronger shear, likely 
resulting in more rapid weakening. Nolo could briefly fall below 
hurricane strength around the middle of this week. Thereafter, as 
the upper-level cyclone moves away from Nolo and its influence 
diminishes, increasingly favorable upper-level winds and warmer 
waters could support some restrengthening. The latest NHC forecast 
is near the middle of the model intensity consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 17.7N 163.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 19.0N 163.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 20.8N 164.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 22.0N 164.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 22.4N 164.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 22.5N 164.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 22.7N 165.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 23.2N 167.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 23.8N 171.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams