Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 300837
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
Nolo continues to rapidly weaken under the influence of strong 
southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. Satellite 
imagery shows that the low-level circulation center is now fully 
exposed, with limited deep convection confined north of the center. 
The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from JTWC 
and HFO are 55 kt, while objective intensity estimates range from 50 
to 60 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and decreasing 
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt.

Nolo has begun its anticipated west-northwestward turn, with an 
initial motion of 290/5 kt. As a ridge builds north of the cyclone, 
Nolo is forecast to turn more toward the west overnight and into 
Wednesday. A temporary westward to west-southwestward motion is 
possible during the next day or so as the weakening system becomes 
increasingly influenced by the lower-level steering flow. 
Thereafter, as Nolo re-strengthens, it is forecast to gain some 
latitude while continuing generally westward through about day 4, 
followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5 as it crosses the 
International Date Line. The track guidance remains in decent 
agreement, despite some continued along- and cross-track spread. The 
latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous 
prediction and lies near the HCCA and GDMI aids.

Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are 
expected to continue affecting Nolo during the next day or so, 
resulting in additional weakening. The shear is forecast to relax 
thereafter, allowing environmental conditions to become more 
favorable for re-strengthening. However, the dry mid-level 
environment could limit the rate of intensification despite warm sea 
surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very 
similar to the previous advisory, showing continued weakening during 
the next day or so, followed by little change in strength through 
Thursday before re-strengthening begins. Nolo is forecast to regain 
hurricane intensity by Friday and strengthen somewhat thereafter. 
The intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 22.4N 164.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 22.6N 164.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 22.7N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 22.6N 165.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 22.8N 166.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/1800Z 23.1N 167.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 23.4N 168.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 24.1N 174.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 26.1N 178.7E   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs