Advisories

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152041
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The depression remains disorganized with a small area of convection 
displaced to the south and east per visible satellite imagery. An 
18Z ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated that the depression's center 
has become more elongated than earlier today, along with weaker 
winds. The initial intensity is set to 25 kt, per the 
scatterometer data, which also mirrors the drop in recent 
conventional estimates. 
 
The system is moving at an estimated motion of 255/10 kt. A
general westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast to 
continue over the next day along the southern edge of a mid-level 
ridge. The biggest change to the forecast is that since the 
low-level center is less defined, the system is probably less 
resilient to persistent dry air entrainment and shear. The new NHC 
forecast holds the intensity at 25 kt and brings up the dissipation 
time to 24 hours, in line with the latest model guidance. It is 
even possible it could degenerate into a trough as early as tonight 
if current trends continue.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 15.7N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 15.2N 126.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 15.0N 128.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jackson/Blake