Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 301501
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026
 
Significant southwesterly wind shear continues to cause rapid 
weakening of Nolo this morning. The center of circulation is 
completely exposed with only minimal convection persisting to the 
northeast of the center. Nolo has also drifted south of due 
west over the past several hours, and the initial position has been 
adjusted accordingly. Recent intensity estimates have fallen 
substantially and range from 35-55 kt. The initial intensity is set 
at a potentially generous 50 kt for this advisory.
 
Nolo is drifting toward the west-southwest, steered by a building 
mid-level ridge to the northwest and a strong, positively-tilted 
trough located to the northeast. Given Nolo's rapid weakening over 
the past day or so, the cyclone is forecast to drift slowly toward 
the west or west-southwest over the next day or so as it becomes 
increasingly steered by the low-level flow. Beyond 48 h, as Nolo 
re-intensifies and becomes vertically deeper, a generally westward 
motion at a faster forward speed is expected as the ridge builds to 
the north, and Nolo is expected to cross the International Date 
Line by day 5. The latest NHC forecast has been shifted to the 
left from the previous forecast to account for the adjustment in 
the initial position, which is also closer to the latest HCCA 
and Google DeepMind solutions. 
 
Prohibitive southwesterly wind shear and a dry mid-level environment 
have caused rapid weakening over the past day or so, and similar 
conditions are expected through the next day. Beyond that time as 
the strong trough moves away from Nolo, decreasing shear and 
slightly more favorable upper-level winds should support gradual 
strengthening through the rest of this week and into this weekend. 
However, the continued dry mid-level environment could limit the 
rate of intensification despite warm sea surface temperatures. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast has been raised slightly beyond 60 h 
and Nolo is expected to regain hurricane strength around this time. 
The intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 22.0N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 22.1N 165.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 22.1N 165.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 22.2N 166.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 22.6N 167.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 22.9N 168.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 23.1N 170.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 24.0N 176.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 25.7N 176.6E   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams