Advisories

000
WTPA32 PHFO 231448
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number  12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2026
 
...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system.  A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will
likely be required for a portion of the state later today.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 154.4
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
(9 km/h), and this motion is expected for the next day or so. A 
sharp turn to the north and north-northeast is expected on 
Thursday, with this motion continuing through the end of the week. 
On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the 
Big Island of Hawaii on Friday and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  The system is expected to become a tropical storm later 
today, with further strengthening to a hurricane likely on Thursday 
and possibly a major hurricane by this weekend.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the
can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header
HFOTCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: There is an increasing risk of wind impacts in the Hawaiian
Islands regardless of the exact track of this system.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fifteen-E will produce rainfall totals 
of 15 to 20 inches across the Big Island with maximum amounts of 35 
inches.  This rainfall may produce catastrophic life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.  
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches 
expected across Maui.  Life-threatening flooding and mudslides 
possible across Maui, especially in areas of high terrain,  Across 
the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 
inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated 
flooding possible. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep15.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are
expected to reach the east and south-facing shores of the Big Island
on Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake