Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 260851
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026
 
Nolo's satellite and radar presentations have improved slightly 
during the past few hours, with less erosion of the convection 
noted on the eastern side of the circulation. However, an Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the storm 
has only measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind of 85 kt, and 
dropsonde data suggest the central pressure continues to oscillate 
around 985 mb. The current intensity is maintained at 90 kt while 
the plane continues its mission sampling the wind field.

Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Nolo's center has been 
nearly stationary, or meandering, for the past 6 hours or so. 
Mid-level high pressure is building north of the Hawaiian Islands, 
which is expected to force Nolo to begin moving slowly westward 
Saturday morning, and then gradually increase in speed over the 
next couple of days. The mid-level trough that had been steering 
Nolo northward is forecast to re-amplify west of the main Hawaiian 
Islands by the end of the weekend, which should cause Nolo to turn 
northwestward and north-northwestward by Monday and Tuesday. Nolo's 
interaction with the mid-level trough/low could then cause the 
storm to turn westward again by day 5. For the most part, the NHC 
official forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, except a 
little bit faster and to the west on day 5, and it lies close to 
the HCCA consensus aid.

The shear that has been affecting Nolo is expected to diminish and 
reach a minimum in about 36 to 48 hours. As a result, strengthening 
is still forecast, with Nolo likely becoming a major hurricane on 
Saturday and reaching a peak intensity by late Sunday. The NHC 
forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance 
envelope. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase substantially in 
about 3 days when Nolo begins to interact with the trough, and that 
should cause the hurricane to weaken and potentially become a 
tropical storm by day 5.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii
through Saturday before turning westward and moving away from the
island. Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Big Island, 
especially in areas of steep terrain, and hurricane conditions are 
possible in those areas on Saturday. Residents should follow
advice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do
so.
 
2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big 
Island and eastern Maui tonight, then continue through the weekend. 
Significant, life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, 
especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern 
portions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, 
lesser rainfall totals are expected.  
 
3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big 
Island's coastline into the weekend.
 
4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where
gusts to tropical storm force are already occurring in some areas 
of steep terrain. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and 
gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the
weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 16.9N 155.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 17.0N 155.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 16.8N 156.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 16.8N 158.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 17.2N 160.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  28/1800Z 18.4N 162.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 20.1N 163.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 22.9N 165.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 23.3N 167.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg