Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 040837
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  55
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Oct 03 2026
 
Nolo's inner-core continues to evolve this evening as its eyewall 
replacement cycle (ERC) progresses. On geostationary satellite, the 
small eye that was observed earlier today has largely decayed, with 
the coldest cloud tops now organizing in a broader ring as a larger 
ragged eye begins to clear out. Earlier, an AMSR3 microwave pass 
over Nolo at 0043 UTC showed an inner eyewall fragment remained on 
the 37 GHz channel, but a more recent 0549 UTC WSF-M pass showed the 
outer eyewall solidifying with the inner eyewall no longer observed. 
This evolution suggests the ERC will likely complete in the near 
future. For now, the subjective and objective intensity estimates 
have lowered some during Nolo's inner-core fluctuations, and the 
initial intensity is set at 95 kt this advisory.
 
The hurricane continues to move quickly westward at an estimated 
motion of 275 degrees at 16 kt. A large subtropical ridge is draped 
to the north of Nolo and should continue to steer the tropical 
cyclone quickly westward for the next 3-4 days. On the forecast 
track, Nolo should cross the International Dateline during the day 
on Sunday. At the end of the forecast period, Nolo will likely reach 
the westward edge of the large-scale ridging, and some slowdown in 
its forward motion is anticipated. However, by this point in the 
forecast, Nolo's vertical depth could be more shallow. Substantial 
across-track uncertainty in the guidance exists, related to if the 
cyclone will begin to recurve northward or continue to maintain a 
slower westward motion. The latest NHC track forecast is very 
similar to the prior one, but just a little slower and further 
northward in the 96-120 h period, following the trends in the 
reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean (GDMI), and its newer version (WN3I). 

Assuming the current ERC completes cleanly over the next 6-12 h, 
Nolo is expected to start intensifying again while the tropical 
cyclone remains over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures, and very low 
shear, currently diagnosed at 5 kt by UW-CIMSS. The NHC intensity 
forecast continues to show a 115 kt peak, which is still below the 
peak intensity reached in the raw output in both the 00 UTC HAFS-B 
and HMON runs. After 48 h, a very amplified upper-level flow pattern 
induced by recurving Typhoon Choi-Wan will lead to an abrupt 
increase in northeasterly shear over Nolo. This ramp-up in shear 
will likely advect very dry mid-level air into the cyclone's core. 
Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows significant weakening 
occurring between 48-72 h, when the brunt of the shear will affect 
Nolo. By the latter half of the forecast period, this shear could 
lessen somewhat, but it is possible Nolo will continue to struggle 
as it remains embedded in a very dry mid-level air environment. The 
NHC intensity forecast remains on the high side of the guidance over 
the first 36-48 h, but falls back to the mean of the intensity aids 
thereafter. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 23.6N 176.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 24.0N 179.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 24.8N 177.6E  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 25.3N 174.5E  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 25.4N 171.0E  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 25.5N 166.7E   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 26.1N 162.5E   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 28.0N 155.5E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 30.0N 152.5E   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin