Advisories

000
WTPA32 PHFO 251152
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII INTO THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 155.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24-36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36-48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Nolo was located by 
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 
15.8 North, longitude 155.6 West. Nolo is moving toward the 
north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with a 
decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn 
toward the west-northwest and west with an increase in forward 
speed is forecast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the 
center of Nolo will remain well south of the main Hawaiian Islands.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Nolo 
is expected to become a major hurricane on Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches) 
based on Air Force dropsonde data.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nolo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin by tonight in 
the warning area, with hurricane conditions possible by early 
Saturday, particularly in areas of steep terrain.
 
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area beginning on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island,
Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 30 inches with maximum
amounts of 35 inches.  This rainfall could produce catastrophic
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For the western portions of the Big Island, rainfall totals of 5 to
8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are expected. For Maui,
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible,
especially in areas of high terrain.
 
Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1
to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with
isolated flooding possible.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Nolo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast and will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east-
and south-facing shores of the Big Island today, spreading westward 
and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake