Advisories

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151446
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026
 
Convection is still displaced to the southeast of the low-level
center of the depression per infrared and proxy-visible satellite 
imagery. The 0804 UTC OSCAT scatterometer pass indicated that the 
center remains elongated with maximum winds of about 30 kt. 
Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The system is moving at an estimated motion of 260/10 kt. A 
generally westward motion is forecast over the next few days as the 
system is steered along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge.
The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and 
relied on the Google DeepMind and HCCA aids.
 
The depression remains within a moderate wind shear environment 
near a mid- to upper-level low, with dry mid-level air entraining 
into the center. While shear is forecast to decrease later 
today, the dry air entrainment should limit significant 
development, though it is possible the system could briefly become 
a tropical storm. Wind shear is expected to increase again in 
a couple days, causing the system to struggle to produce deep 
convection. Thus, the depression is forecast to become a 
post-tropical cyclone by 60 h, and open into a trough by day 4.  No 
large changes were made to the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 16.1N 123.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 15.8N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 15.6N 127.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 15.6N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 15.8N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z 16.2N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jackson/Blake/Muccilli