Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 302040
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026
 
Significant wind shear has caused Nolo to rapidly weaken over the 
past day, with the remaining deep convection displaced well away 
from the fully exposed center of circulation. The tropical storm has 
also become increasingly vertically shallow and is currently 
wobbling, likely in response to the low-level steering flow. The 
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 35-45 kt, while 
objective intensity estimates ranged from 31-41 kt. The initial 
intensity is set at a potentially generous 45 kt for this advisory.
 
Nolo is currently situated between a strong upper-level low to the 
northeast and a building ridge centered to the northwest. Despite 
this pattern, the tropical storm is drifting toward the 
south-southeast, and additional small wobbles in the motion are 
possible over the next day or so. A turn back toward the west is 
forecast by Thursday, followed by a slow forward motion over the 
subsequent day as the upper-level low pulls away from Nolo and the 
ridge expands north of the cyclone. By this weekend, Nolo is 
expected to accelerate as a new area of high pressure develops to 
its north. On the forecast track, Nolo is expected to cross the 
International Date Line around days 4-5. The latest NHC forecast has 
been shifted to the left from the previous one to account for 
the southward initial motion, and is also closer to the latest HCCA 
and Google DeepMind solutions.

Very hostile environmental conditions are expected to inhibit any 
strengthening over the next day or so. Beyond 24-36 h, Nolo is 
forecast to move over warmer ocean temperatures and into an 
environment with substantially lower wind shear, supporting gradual 
re-strengthening. However, persistent dry mid-level air could limit 
the rate of intensification despite the otherwise favorable 
conditions. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle 
of the guidance envelope, with Nolo expected to regain hurricane 
strength in a couple of days. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 21.6N 164.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 21.8N 165.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 21.9N 165.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 22.3N 166.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 22.6N 167.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 22.8N 168.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 23.0N 171.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 24.1N 178.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 25.5N 174.9E   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams