Advisories

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 140839
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152026
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026
 
There are not a lot of changes to report with the depression 
overnight. Convection continues to burst primarily to the southeast 
of the cyclone's low-level circulation due to moderate northwesterly 
vertical wind shear. Both subjective and objective intensity 
estimates are hovering in the 30 kt range. Without much appreciable 
change to the depression's structure, the initial intensity will 
remain 30 kt this advisory.
 
The tropical depression made a short-term jog southwest of the 
previous forecast track, likely influenced by nearby convection, and 
its initial motion is now estimated at 255/8 kt. Over the next few 
days, the tropical cyclone should maintain this general heading with 
some gradual acceleration as it remains steered by a significant 
low- to mid-level ridge placed to its northwest. The official track 
was adjusted a little south of the prior advisory, partially due to 
the further southward initial position. This track lies closest to 
the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind 
(GDMI) forecast aids. 

The moderate vertical wind shear affecting the depression currently 
is likely to keep the system in check, especially since the 
northwest direction of the shear is helping to bring dry air into 
its center. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show only 
slight strengthening today, in line with the HCCA intensity 
guidance. Even though vertical wind shear appears to decrease after 
the next 24-36 h, most of the model guidance shows the cyclone not 
taking advantage of these conditions, instead showing a slowly 
weakening system that gradually loses its identity within the 
larger monsoon trough. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to 
the prior advisory, but moves up the timing of remnant low status to 
72 h, when the system is forecast to lose convective organization 
in the global and hurricane-regional model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 16.5N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 16.3N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 16.1N 122.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 15.8N 124.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.4N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 15.0N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 14.7N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0600Z 14.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin