Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 252032
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  54
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 25 2026

Deep convection associated with Lala has decreased a bit in 
coverage over the past few hours.  Whereas this may be temporary, 
it is more likely a response to cooler waters.  The system 
continues to exhibit a ragged eye-like feature and remains fairly 
well organized.  The intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory 
which is the same as a Dvorak Current Intensity Number from the 
Joint Typhoon Warning Center.  Dvorak Final T-Numbers have 
decreased however.  Data from an upcoming scatterometer overpass 
should provide a good intensity estimate.

Lala continues moving west-northwestward, with an initial motion 
estimate of 300/5 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the 
cyclone should steer the system on a west-northwestward to 
northwestward track for the next few days.  Since Lala is likely to 
remain fairly well removed from the faster southwesterly flow at 
higher latitudes for the next 72 hours, it is likely to continue 
moving rather slowly until late in the forecast period.  Not much 
change is made to the official track forecast for this advisory 
cycle.  The official forecast remains close to the corrected model 
consensus, HCCA, solution.

The cyclone is likely to remain over relatively cooler waters of 
around 23 deg C or so and within a fairly dry low- to mid-level air 
mass during the forecast period.  Therefore, gradual weakening is 
expected and Lala will probably degenerate into a post-tropical 
cyclone within 60 hours, or sooner.  This is consistent with the 
latest simulated IR imagery from the ECMWF which shows most of the 
system's deep convection dissipating by that time.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 35.0N 177.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 35.3N 177.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 35.8N 178.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 36.5N 179.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 37.3N 179.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 38.0N 179.4E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z 38.4N 178.2E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1800Z 41.7N 174.7E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1800Z 48.5N 177.0E   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch