Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 180856
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 17 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Lala has continued to become better 
organized, with an eye emerging in infrared satellite imagery around 
06Z.  Since that time, the eye has opened and closed a couple times 
as Lala attempts to become better organized.  A very recent GPMI 
microwave pass also indicates that the eye is becoming better 
organized. Lala appears to be strengthening, despite being embedded 
in an environment of 10-15 kt westerly vertical wind shear and a dry 
mid-level troposphere.  The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are a 
consensus 4.0/65 kt from PHFO and JTWC. Recent SATCON, DPRINT and 
DMINT intensity estimates have been ebbing and flowing in the 62-76 
kt range.  Given these estimates, the initial intensity has been 
raised to 70 kt, making Lala a hurricane again.
 
The initial motion estimate is westward, or 275/9 kt.  A gradual 
turn toward the northwest is expected over the next 36 h as a narrow 
ridge north of Lala shifts eastward and an upper-level trough 
approaches the hurricane from the northwest.  By Thursday, that 
trough will cause Lala to turn northward.  This forecast brings Lala 
toward portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on 
Thursday and Thursday night, and watches will likely be required for 
parts of that area on Tuesday morning.  The latest NHC track 
forecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but then 
faster toward the north from 48-120 h.  The NHC track forecast is 
near the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) and the Simple 
Consensus aid (TVCN).  The confidence is the track forecast is high 
through 48 h, but there is significant spread in the guidance from 
72-120 h in both the along-track and cross-track directions.
 
Lala has been able to strengthen by 20 kt over the past 18-24 h 
despite a dry mid-level environment and 10-15 kt of westerly 
vertical wind shear.  All of the models indicate continued 
strengthening over the next 24 h despite a slight increase in wind 
shear to the 15-20 kt range by 12-24 h.  The NHC intensity forecast 
is between the middle and high end of the guidance during this 
period.  The NHC forecast peak intensity was increased slightly to 
85 kt during hour 24-48, similar to an average of the hurricane 
regional models.  Thereafter, most models keep Lala a hurricane 
through at least day 4 or 5.  Although SHIPS guidance shows 
increasing vertical wind shear in the 60-96 h period, the shear 
vector should be fairly similar to the direction of motion by that 
time, limiting the shear's negative influence.  Furthermore, the 
position of the aforementioned upper-level trough relative to Lala 
could help enhance upper-level divergence and outflow over the 
hurricane.  These factors lead to a complicated intensity forecast 
around the 60-96 h time frame.  The NHC forecast is near the middle 
of the guidance envelope during that time.  By day 5, Lala will 
likely be approaching the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm as it 
gains latitude, leading to weakening by that point.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 20.4N 166.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 20.6N 167.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 21.1N 169.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 22.1N 170.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 23.3N 171.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  20/1800Z 24.6N 172.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 26.0N 171.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 30.2N 170.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 33.3N 172.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen