Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 232033
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows Tropical Storm Lala may 
be a bit better organized, with deep convection over the center and 
a larger outer band now wrapping around the eastern and northern 
semicircles. The change in appearance has not yet influenced the 
objective and subjective satellite-based intensity estimates, which 
support maintaining an initial intensity of 55 kt for this 
advisory. I again note that this intensity could be generous, but 
is consistent with a steady decay of the cyclone over cooler waters 
and the recent improved appearance on satellite imagery.

Lala's current forward motion is analyzed to be 305/4 kt. The 
mid-level ridge positioned just south and east of the central 
Aleutian Islands is expected to remain the primary steering feature 
through this week. As a result, the tropical storm is forecast to 
continue slowly on a northwestward heading until degenerating into a 
remnant low by 120 h. The track forecast is similar to the previous 
advisory and closely follows the corrected multi-model consensus 
(HCCA), which lies on the western side of the guidance envelope.
 
The intensity forecast is largely unchanged, lies within the middle 
of the guidance envelope near HCCA, and continues to show a slow and 
steady decay as the tropical cyclone moves across gradually cooler 
waters. Some increase in vertical wind shear beginning around 72 h 
should allow mid-level dry air to better penetrate the cyclone. Lala 
is forecast to become a remnant low by 120 h, in agreement with the 
latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery, though this could 
happen sooner.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 32.5N 174.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 33.0N 174.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 33.6N 175.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 34.3N 176.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 34.8N 177.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 35.4N 177.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 36.1N 178.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 37.5N 179.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 39.6N 178.1E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Cangialosi