Advisories

000
WTPA32 PHFO 130840
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Advisory Number   4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 12 2026
 
...DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...
...FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, HIGH WINDS AND DANGEROUS SURF
TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS STARTING LATE FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 144.5W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system.  A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will
likely be required for a portion of the state by early Thursday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 14.8 North, longitude 144.5 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the 
west-northwest is expected on Thursday.  On the forecast track, the 
center will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands by late Friday.
 
Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds 
are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. However, the system 
still lacks sufficient organized shower and thunderstorm activity 
to be considered a tropical storm. The disturbance is forecast to 
become a tropical storm by Thursday night, and additional 
strengthening is forecast thereafter.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and
WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.
 
WIND:  There is an increasing risk of wind impacts in the Hawaiian
Islands regardless of the exact track of this system.
 
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce 
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across much of the Island chain, 
with maximum totals of 20 inches possible. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to reach
the east-facing shores of the state on Friday, spreading westward
and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven