Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 171455
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Aug 17 2026
 
Convection is limited to the inner core of Lala based on the latest 
satellite imagery this morning with the cyclone embedded in a dry 
airmass. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates 
from HFO and JTWC range from  45 to 55 kt. The objective intensity 
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 58 kt. Given that the 
satellite presentation has remained steady the last several hours 
and using a blend of all the intensity estimates, the current 
intensity has been held at 50 kt.  
 
Lala is moving westward, or 265/10 kt, and this motion is expected 
to continue over the next couple of days as a strong subtropical 
ridge remains positioned to the north. Thereafter, a weakness is 
forecast to develop in the ridge in response to a shortwave trough 
moving across the northern Pacific, causing Lala to turn toward the 
northwest and then north during the middle of the week. Track 
forecast confidence remains relatively high through the next few 
days. Beyond Day 3, the spread increases with the turn to the 
northwest and north, and how fast that occurs. The GDMI and HCCA 
turn the system more abruptly, with an increase in forward speed 
compared to the remainder of the guidance. The latest NHC track 
forecast is very close to the previous advisory through midweek, 
then follows a blend of the previous forecast and the HCCA and 
Google DeepMind aids. 

Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or 
so as the system moves away from the main Hawaiian Islands, as the 
system continues to deal with a dry airmass and moderate wind shear. 
In about a day or so, Lala will move into a slightly better 
environment with warm sea-surface temperatures and more moisture in 
the mid-levels, which will allow some intensification to occur. How 
much intensification remains to be seen, especially if Lala's inner 
core is small and compact, as some of the hurricane regional models 
depict. There is also the potential for positive interaction with 
the aforementioned shortwave trough that may increase storm top 
divergence. The latest NHC intensity forecast calls for Lala to 
regain hurricane strength in about a day or two and is similar to 
the previous prediction, although it is below some of the hurricane 
regional models, HCCA and GDMI intensity aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 20.4N 163.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 20.4N 164.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 20.4N 166.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 20.6N 168.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 21.2N 169.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 22.1N 171.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 23.1N 171.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 25.3N 172.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 28.5N 171.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Kelly