Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 220236
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026
 
Lala has become more asymmetrical this afternoon due to strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear displacing the convection mostly
to the north of the low-level center. A recent GPM microwave pass
shows that the low- and mid-level centers are becoming tilted due to
the shear. Dry air has also started to intrude into the system, with
convection warming and broken banding features. The latest
subjective and objective intensity aids have decreased as well
following the degraded satellite appearance, with estimates ranging
from 63 to 77 kt. Using these estimates and the current satellite
trends, the intensity is lowered to 75 kt for this advisory.
 
Lala is moving northward at an estimated motion of 355/8 kt. The 
system should begin to turn northwestward later tonight into 
Saturday as a mid-level ridge builds to the east of the cyclone. 
Lala will move around the western periphery of the ridge, towards 
the northwest, throughout the forecast period at a slightly slower 
forward speed. The latest NHC track forecast is nudged slightly to 
the left toward the latest consensus aids.
 
Although the southwesterly shear is forecast to decrease later
tonight or early Saturday, Lala is expected to track over
progressively cooler sea surface temperatures and remain embedded
within a dry mid-level environment. Thus, the system is forecast to
continue weakening throughout the forecast period. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous and shows a gradual 
weakening trend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 29.4N 170.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 30.1N 171.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 31.0N 172.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 31.8N 173.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 32.3N 174.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  24/1200Z 33.0N 174.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 33.8N 175.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 35.5N 177.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 37.3N 178.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly