Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 172041
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 17 2026
 
Lala is a compact tropical storm. A large, curved convective band
wraps most of the way around the system in visible and infrared
satellite images. Objective UW-CIMSS D-MINT intensity estimates have
increased this morning based on recent SSMIS passive microwave data
that showed improved mid-level structure. In addition, HFO and JTWC
recently provided consensus T3.5 Dvorak intensity estimates. Based
on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt.
 
Lala is moving just south of due west (260/9 kt). A subtropical
ridge to the north of Lala will keep the storm on a westward heading
for the next 12-24 h. Then, a shortwave trough is forecast to move
over the northern Pacific and induce a weakness in the steering
ridge by midweek. This should cause Lala to turn northwestward and
then northward later this week. This forecast brings Lala toward
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on
Thursday and Thursday night, and watches may be required for parts
of that area on Tuesday. Track forecast confidence is higher than
yesterday since the track models are in better agreement on the
northward turn, though there is still some spread in how abrupt that
turn will be. Overall, the updated NHC forecast is slightly faster,
but otherwise very similar to the previous prediction.
 
The small size of Lala could make it prone to faster intensity
changes in either direction. The storm is currently moving within a
fairly dry mid-level environment and experiencing moderate westerly
shear. While these conditions are not ideal for strengthening, a
solidified inner core could allow Lala to resist some of these
inhibiting environmental factors and intensify over warm waters
(27-28 deg C). The hurricane regional models and Google Deep Mind
(GDMI) remain most aggressive with near-term strengthening. The NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted upward slightly following the
simple consensus (IVCN) and shows Lala becoming a hurricane again by
late Tuesday. The longer-range forecast is tricky, as the global
models suggest some potential for positive trough interaction later
this week before strong southwesterly shear induces weakening. While
a secondary intensity peak is not shown in the official forecast,
some intensification in 3-4 days cannot be ruled out.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 20.4N 164.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 20.4N 165.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 20.5N 167.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 20.9N 169.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 21.7N 170.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  20/0600Z 22.8N 171.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 24.1N 172.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 26.5N 171.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 30.5N 170.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart