Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 202040
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026
 
Despite some renewed convection earlier today, the central structure 
of Lala appears to be slowly deteriorating by dry air intrusion, as 
depicted on the latest satellite images. The Dvorak final-T and 
current intensity numbers from HFO and JTWC showcase values that 
warranted the initial intensity to be set a little lower than the 
previous advisory; now near a possibly generous 80 kt, which is 
still a bit higher than the latest objective intensity estimates 
from UW-CIMSS, which range between 65-75 kt.
 
Lala has shifted to a more northerly track at 355/09 kt, just ahead 
of the mid- to upper-level trough located northwest of the 
hurricane. As the aforementioned trough becomes absorbed by Lala, 
broad ridging building in the Central Pacific just north of the 
hurricane will help shift Lala back to a more northwesterly track by 
the weekend. The models are in pretty good agreement through the 
forecast period, and little changes were needed to the latest NHC 
track which generally follows the HCCA and GDMI trends.
 
Lala will remain a strong and powerful hurricane as it continues to 
traverse the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the 
next couple of days. The latest intensity guidance suggests small 
near-term fluctuations are possible within the next 24-36 h as 
strong upper-level divergence is countered by negative influences of 
moderate shear and dry air. The NHC intensity forecast shows little 
change during this time, generally following HCCA. Thereafter, a 
gradual weakening trend is forecast in line with the multi-model 
intensity consensus as Lala moves over gradually cooling SSTs and 
moderate shear returns by 96 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 24.9N 172.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 26.2N 172.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 28.1N 171.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 29.9N 171.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 30.9N 172.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  23/0600Z 31.8N 173.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 32.6N 175.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 34.1N 176.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 35.7N 178.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Reinhart