Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 140836
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number   8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 13 2026
 
Lala has shown little change in organization over the past several 
hours. Most of the deep convection remains confined to the northern 
portion of the circulation, with little deep convection occurring 
south of the center. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
investigating Lala has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 
kt. In addition, 0621 UTC METOP-B and 0645 UTC METOP-C scatterometer 
passes provided useful information for adjusting the 
tropical-storm-force wind radii and confirmed the highly asymmetric 
nature of the circulation, with much weaker winds across the 
southern semicircle. Based on all of the available data, the initial 
intensity is held at a generous 50 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt. The 
overall track forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged. A 
strong mid-level ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue 
to steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next several 
days. The cyclone's forward motion is forecast to slow somewhat as 
it approaches and begins to interact with the terrain of the Big 
Island on Saturday. Some short-term deviations in the track are also 
possible during this time due to these terrain interactions. Lala 
should then resume a faster west-northwestward motion as it passes 
south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the weekend, 
and south of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Sunday night into 
early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to 
the previous advisory and remains close to the multi-model consensus 
(HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
Environmental conditions are expected to remain generally favorable 
for strengthening during the next couple of days, with the primary 
limiting factor being the dry mid-level air that continues to be 
entrained into the cyclone's large circulation. Steady strengthening 
is forecast, and Lala is expected to become a hurricane as it 
approaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the terrain 
of the Big Island could result in short-term changes in the 
cyclone's structure and intensity during its closest approach. 
Thereafter, a progressively drier mid-level environment, along with 
some increase in westerly vertical wind shear, should result in 
weakening as Lala passes south of the smaller islands through the 
remainder of the weekend. Some re-strengthening is forecast early 
next week as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm 
sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous advisory and remains near the middle to 
upper end of the guidance envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it 
approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by early Saturday. A Hurricane 
Warning remains in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm 
Watch is in effect for Maui County. Winds are expected to be the 
strongest in areas of higher terrain.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to 
impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the 
remainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may 
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas 
of steep terrain.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are 
expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed 
windward and southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf 
may cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of 
Lala, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on 
Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 16.7N 148.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 16.9N 150.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 17.6N 152.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 18.3N 154.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 19.2N 156.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 20.1N 159.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 20.7N 162.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 21.4N 166.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 22.5N 170.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs