Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 201455
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026

While the eye is not presently visible, current satellite 
observations suggest Lala has slowly reorganized during the early 
morning hours, with deep convection building in near and south of 
the center. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak final-T and 
current intensity numbers from HFO and JTWC, the initial intensity 
is set at a possibly generous 85 kt. This is a bit higher than the 
latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, which range 
between 70-80 kt.
 
Lala continues to maintain a north-northwestward track at 340/08 kt, 
beginning to feel the impacts of the mid- to upper-level trough just 
northwest of the hurricane. It is forecast that the hurricane track 
will nudge more northerly tomorrow and pick up a bit of speed. As 
the aforementioned trough becomes absorbed by Lala, broad ridging 
building in the Central Pacific just north of the hurricane will 
help shift Lala on a more northwesterly track by the weekend. Many 
models, including HCCA and GDMI are in pretty good agreement through 
the forecast period, with little changes needed to the latest NHC 
track.
 
The latest model and satellite trends suggest Lala will maintain 
strength as a strong and powerful hurricane as it nears the 
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument today. While the 
hurricane will continue to experience moderate to strong 
southwesterly shear during the next day or so, upper-level 
divergence from the aforementioned trough may help counter the 
negative shear effects. The latest guidance suggests small intensity 
fluctuations could occur in the near term, and the latest NHC 
forecast shows little change during this time. Thereafter, gradual 
weakening is forecast in line with the multi-model intensity 
consensus as Lala moves over gradually cooling SSTs.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 24.2N 172.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 25.3N 172.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 27.0N 171.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 29.0N 171.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 30.3N 172.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 31.4N 173.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 32.4N 174.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 33.9N 176.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 35.9N 178.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Reinhart