Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 182038
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026
 
Lala has continued to become better organized since the previous 
advisory, with the eyewall cloud tops continuing to cool and the 
eye becoming warmer and more distinct. The various satellite 
intensity estimates continue to have a large spread from 61 to 94 
kt, but they have all increased over the past six hours.  Based on 
the previous advisory and current trends, the initial intensity is 
increased to 90 kt.
 
The initial motion remains westward or 275/8 kt.  There is little
change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory.
Lala should move westward to west-northwestward for the next 12-24 
h as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. From 24-72 h,
the cyclone should make a northward turn as a mid- to upper-level
trough to the northwest breaks down the ridge.  From 72-120 h, a
turn back toward the northwest is likely as the trough becomes a 
cut-off low with Lala moving around the northeast side. The 
guidance is in reasonably good agreement with this scenario, 
although there is still cross-track spread on when and where the 
various turns will occur. The new forecast track is similar to the 
previous track and follows a cluster of models that includes the 
HFIP Corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind Ensemble 
mean (GDMI).

In the short term, it is unclear how much more Lala can strengthen 
since the hurricane is experiencing 15-20 kt of westerly shear and 
is embedded in a dry mid-level air mass. Based on the guidance 
trends, the intensity forecast shows 12 h more strengthening and a 
peak intensity of 100 kt, which is at the upper edge of the 
guidance. In the longer term, the large-scale models forecast the 
shear to persist for at least the next three days as the hurricane 
interacts with aforementioned upper-level trough. The shear gets 
strong enough so that the hurricane should weaken some for 24-72 h, 
although during this time Lala should reach a more moist 
environment and find periods of strong upper-level divergence caused 
by the trough. Overall, the intensity guidance shows a slow decay 
from 24-72 h, and the new forecast follows this.  Sea surface 
temperatures decrease along the forecast track after 72 h, and this 
should cause continued gradual weakening even though the shear is 
forecast to decrease. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 20.4N 168.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 20.8N 169.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 21.9N 170.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 23.2N 171.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 24.5N 171.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 26.1N 171.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 28.0N 170.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 31.2N 171.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 33.6N 173.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven