Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 230244
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026
 
Lala has a good structure of curved convective bands surrounding a 
ragged and intermittent eye. However, the cloud tops are not cold, 
with tops of -50C to -55C confined to small areas near the center. 
The various satellite intensity estimates range from 45-65 kt and 
are trending slowly downward, while an earlier ASCAT overpass showed 
maximum winds between 50-55 kt. Based on these data and the 
possibility of undersampling of the ASCAT data, the initial 
intensity is reduced to 60 kt. Thus, Lala is downgraded to a 
tropical storm. 

The initial motion is 320/5 kt. During the forecast period, Lala 
should be steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, with 
this feature expected to build northwestward due to a developing 
baroclinic trough over the far northwestern Pacific. This pattern 
should cause Lala to move on a general slow northwestward track.  
There is little change to the track guidance, and the new forecast 
track is similar to the previous forecast.

Despite the high latitudes of the forecast, Lala is likely to stay 
well away from any baroclinic zones that could cause extratropical 
transition. The cyclone is expected to remain in an area of light 
to moderate shear for the next several days, so the intensity will 
be controlled mainly by sea surface temperatures and moisture. The 
storm has another 24 h over sea surface temperatures of 26C, after 
which the water gets colder along the forecast track. The new 
intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance in showing a 
slow weakening over the next several days. As before, Lala is 
forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical around  
120 h as suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and 
ECMWF models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 31.5N 172.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 32.0N 173.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 32.7N 174.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 33.3N 174.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 33.9N 175.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 34.7N 176.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 35.4N 176.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 37.2N 178.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 39.1N 180.0E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Beven