Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 132055
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number   6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 13 2026

Tropical Storm Lala has strengthened a little this morning.  A very 
recent ASCAT-B pass showed peak winds of about 40 kt north of the 
center, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate 
that the minimum pressure is around 1000 mb.  Based on a combination 
of aircraft, scatterometer, and satellite data, the initial 
intensity is nudged upward to 40 kt.  The storm's wind field is 
quite asymmetric with all of its tropical-storm-force winds 
occurring north of the center. Additional data from the Air Force 
and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be helpful to further assess Lala's 
intensity over the next couple of days.
 
Lala has slowed down a bit and turned to the west-northwest.  A 
large mid-level high pressure system located to the north of the 
Hawaiian Islands should keep Lala on a west-northwestward track, 
taking the core of the system near the Big Island by early Saturday. 
Lala will very likely pass south of the remainder of the main 
Hawaiian Islands later in the weekend.  The spread in the guidance 
has increased a little this cycle, with the GFS shifting south of 
the previous run while the Google DeepMind remains unchanged on 
the north side of the guidance envelope.  Based on a blend of the 
latest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, the NHC track forecast 
is largely an update of the previous one. It is important to note, 
that the NHC 48-h track error is about 50 to 60 miles.
 
Lala is likely to continue to strengthen while it approaches the Big 
Island as the storm is expected to remain in generally conducive 
environmental conditions.  The NHC intensity forecast now shows Lala 
reaching category one hurricane status when it is near the Big 
Island, trending toward the latest HCCA and Google DeepMind 
solutions.  An upper-level low is expected to develop and impart 
shear, helping intrude dry air in the circulation when Lala moves to 
the south of the smaller islands, and that could cause some 
weakening this weekend. However, re-strengthening is forecast early 
next week when the system pulls away from the Hawaiian Islands. The 
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged.  This forecast lies near the 
high end of the guidance in the short term, but lies near the middle 
of the guidance envelope thereafter.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and it could be near hurricane 
strength when it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by early 
Saturday.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the island, and a 
Hurricane Warning could be required later today.  Winds are 
expected to be the strongest in areas of higher terrain.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to
impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the
remainder of the island chain during the weekend.  This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain.
 
3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are
expected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along the southern
shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized
coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.
 
4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of
Lala, and Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or
Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 15.4N 146.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 16.1N 147.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.9N 150.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 17.5N 152.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 18.2N 154.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 19.0N 157.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 19.8N 160.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 21.1N 165.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 22.3N 169.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Pierce