Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 190253
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026
 
The satellite presentation of Lala has improved markedly over the 
past several hours, with very cold cloud tops now completely 
surrounding a clear, symmetric and very warm eye. The latest 
subjective intensity estimates from WFO HFO and JTWC are 5.0/90 kt 
and 5.5/102 kt, respectively. However, objective intensity estimates 
from UW-CIMSS span a considerably wider range of 94-119 kt. Given 
the rapidly increasing objective intensity estimates and the 
continued improvement in Lala's satellite presentation, the initial 
intensity has been set at 110 kt for this advisory. This makes Lala 
the first major hurricane of the year in the Central Pacific Basin. 
 
Lala is moving west-northwestward around 8 kt, steered primarily by 
a mid-level ridge centered to the north. A gradual turn toward the 
northwest is expected on Wednesday as a mid- to upper-level trough 
approaches the region from the northwest. By Thursday, the trough is 
expected to weaken the ridge, resulting in a more northward motion. 
Late this week, Lala is likely to turn back toward the 
north-northwest as the trough becomes a cut-off low and Lala moves 
around its northeastern periphery. The latest NHC track forecast is 
very similar to the previous advisory through 96 h. Beyond that 
time, however, there remains considerable along- and cross-track 
spread regarding the timing and location of the eventual turn back 
toward the north-northwest. 

Despite moderate west-southwesterly wind shear, relatively dry 
mid-level air and unfavorable upper-level winds, Lala has 
been rapidly intensifying over fairly warm sea surface 
temperatures. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that 
the hurricane's strength may be leveling off for the time 
being, some additional strengthening is possible over the next 12 h 
or so.  The forecast peak intensity has been increased to 
115 kt, which is above all available intensity guidance. After 24 
h, Lala is expected to move over gradually cooler waters while 
continuing to encounter moderate west-southwesterly wind shear 
associated with the trough. During this time, however, the hurricane 
should move into a more moist environment and experience periods of 
enhanced upper-level divergence which could temporarily offset some 
of the unfavorable conditions. The latest NHC forecast therefore 
calls for only slow weakening beyond 24 h, followed by more steady 
weakening after 72 h as Lala moves over progressively cooler 
waters. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 20.7N 168.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 21.3N 169.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 22.5N 171.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 23.9N 171.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 25.4N 171.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  21/1200Z 26.9N 171.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 28.7N 171.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 31.8N 172.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 34.0N 174.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams/Pasch