Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 230844
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026
 
Visible satellite images before sunset showed the well-defined
center of Lala surrounded by pronounced curved convective bands.
Infrared cloud top temperatures closer to the center have warmed
within the decaying eyewall. A blend of the latest HFO and JTWC
Dvorak intensity estimates and the earlier scatterometer data
support holding the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory.
 
The storm is moving slowly to the northwest (325/6 kt) with a 
mid-level ridge positioned to its north and northeast. This ridge is 
forecast to slide eastward and build over the northern Pacific 
during the next several days. This should keep Lala on a slow 
northwestward track through the forecast period. While the track 
models agree on this general scenario, there is notable cross-track 
spread in the extended range with the Google Deep Mind and GFS 
solutions on opposite sides of the guidance envelope. The updated 
NHC track forecast is slightly slower than the previous one, with 
small westward adjustments beyond 48 h that trend closer to the 
latest corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA).
 
Lala is centered over waters slightly warmer than 26C in a 
relatively weak shear environment. With no baroclinic features 
forecast to impart shear on the storm or induce its extratropical 
transition, Lala is predicted to only gradually weaken during the 
next couple of days. After 48 h, the storm will move over 
progressively cooler waters, and the updated NHC prediction shows 
steady weakening during the latter half of the forecast. GFS and 
ECMWF simulated satellite images suggest Lala could struggle to 
sustain organized convection by midweek, and this forecast shows the 
system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 120 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 32.0N 173.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 32.5N 174.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 33.1N 174.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 33.7N 175.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 34.3N 176.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 35.0N 176.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 35.7N 177.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 37.4N 179.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 39.0N 179.0E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart