Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 181438
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026

Lala has become a bit better organized during the past couple of 
hours. While the eye remains ragged and cloud filled, the eyewall 
convection has become more vigorous and more symmetric. The various 
satellite intensity estimates have an unusually large spread from 
49 to 77 kt, but they are trending upward. The initial intensity is 
increased to 75 kt based on the recent increase in organization.

The initial motion remains westward or 275/8 kt.  There is little 
change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. 
Lala should move westward to west-northwestward for the next 24 h or 
so as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. From 24-72 h, 
the cyclone should make a northward turn as a mid- to upper-level 
trough to the northwest breaks down the ridge.  From 72-120 h, a 
turn back toward the northwest is likely as the aforementioned 
trough becomes a cut-off low with Lala moving around the northeast 
side of this system. The guidance is in reasonably good agreement 
with this scenario, although there is some cross-track spread on 
when the various turns will occur. The new forecast track is similar 
to the previous track and follows a cluster of models that includes 
the HFIP Corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind Ensemble 
mean (GDMI).
 
Lala is strengthening despite being in a marginal shear environment 
and being embedded in a dry mid-level environment.  The large-scale 
models forecast the shear to persist for at least the next three 
days as the hurricane interacts with the upper-level trough. While 
the shear should at least slow the strengthening, Lala is forecast 
to reach a more moist environment, and it may find periods with 
strong upper-level divergence due to a favorable interaction with 
the trough. The intensity forecast will show continued strengthening 
for 24-36 h, and since this part of the forecast is in the middle of 
the intensity guidance envelope it is possible Lala could get 
stronger than what is shown here.  Sea surface temperatures start 
decreasing along the forecast track after 72 h, and this should lead 
to a gradual weakening during that time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 20.5N 167.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 20.8N 168.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 21.5N 169.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 22.7N 171.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 24.0N 171.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 25.4N 171.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 27.2N 171.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 31.3N 170.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 34.0N 172.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven