Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 231434
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

The presentation of Tropical Storm Lala has not changed much on
infrared satellite imagery over the past six hours, with deep
convection limited to the south and eastern semicircles. Subjective
Dvorak estimates from JTWC and HFO are both T3.5/55 kt, and
objective intensity estimates are closer to 50 kt. For this
advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, which could be
generous but is consistent with a steady decay of the cyclone over
cooler waters.

Lala appears to have slightly decelerated on a west-northwestward 
heading (300/4 kt), as it is steered by a weak mid-level ridge 
positioned just south and east of the central Aleutian Islands. The 
tropical storm should continue on a generally west-northwestward to 
northwestward heading through the remainder of the forecast period 
as the ridge slides eastward. Lala's forward motion is not expected 
to change much, and remain somewhat slow. The track guidance this 
cycle remains in decent agreement on this scenario, though there 
continues to be some cross-track spread, with the GFS presenting a 
more eastward solution and the Google Deep Mind showing a more 
westward solution. The updated track forecast is again slightly 
slower than the previous one, and is again nudged westward toward 
the latest corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA).
 
The waters near the tropical storm are around 26C, with light shear 
and dry mid-level air. The shear and mid-level moisture are not 
likely to change much through the forecast period, so Lala should 
only weaken gradually as it moves over progressively cooler waters. 
Cooler upper tropospheric temperatures, which increase tropospheric 
instability, could counter some of the effect, at least initially, 
of the sea surface temperatures. By 120 h, Lala is forecast to 
become a post-tropical remnant low, in agreement with the GFS and 
ECMWF simulated satellite imagery and the large-scale environmental 
diagnostics from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction 
Scheme (SHIPS) guidance. The new intensity forecast is consistent 
with the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 32.1N 173.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 32.5N 174.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 33.1N 174.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 33.8N 175.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 34.3N 176.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 34.9N 177.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 35.6N 177.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 37.2N 179.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 39.1N 178.9E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Blake