Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 240852
TCDCP2
 
Tropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  48
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

The satellite presentation of Lala consists of a large curved band 
that wraps most of the way around the center of the storm. Infrared 
cloud top temperatures are as cold as -55C to -60C, which is fairly 
impressive given Lala's higher latitude over sub-26C waters. The 
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates and the objective 
estimates from UW-CIMSS have held steady tonight, and the initial 
intensity remains 55 kt. Data from an ASCAT-C pass is expected just 
after this advisory issuance but will be useful in reassessing the 
intensity and size of Lala for the next cycle.

Lala is moving slowly north-northwestward (330/5 kt). Based on the 
storm's position near but just to the southwest of a strong ridge 
axis, a slow and generally northwestward motion is expected to 
continue for the next several days. The latest NHC forecast track 
shows Lala crossing the International Date Line between 72-96 h from 
now. There remains a fair amount of cross-track spread in the 
guidance at days 3-5, but only minimal adjustments were made to the 
NHC track forecast to bring it closer to the latest corrected 
consensus (HCCA).

While Lala is predicted to move over gradually cooler waters in the 
coming days, the aforementioned ridge will keep the deep-layer shear 
relatively weak over the storm. Therefore, only slow weakening is 
anticipated during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast 
lies near the middle of the various intensity aids and is similar 
to the previous prediction. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite data 
suggest Lala will struggle to maintain organized convection between 
days 3-4, and the system appears likely to become post-tropical by 
96 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 33.3N 174.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 33.8N 175.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 34.5N 176.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 35.1N 177.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 35.6N 177.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 36.1N 178.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 36.9N 179.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 38.3N 179.2E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/0600Z 40.5N 177.0E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart