Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 222034
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026

Lalas convective structure hasnt changed much over the past 6 h, 
which consists of tightly curved bands.  Only some of the area of 
these convective bands consists of deep convection with cloud tops 
colder than -30C, whereas only moderate convection covers the 
remainder of the convective band area, with cloud top temperatures 
between 0C and -30C.  The latest subjective Dvorak classifications 
are T4.0/65 kt from JTWC and T3.5/55 kt from PHFO.  Since convection 
has been fairly meager for a while now, and we are 12 hours removed 
from the earlier 09Z ASCAT pass mentioned in the discussion from the 
15Z advisory, the initial intensity it again nudged downward, and is 
set at 65 kt for this advisory. 

Lala has slowed down over the past 12 hours, and the initial motion 
is estimated to be northwestward, or 305 degrees at 6 kt.  There is 
no change to the forecast track philosophy. Two mid- to upper-level 
ridges, one to the north and one to the west of Lala will cause the 
cyclone to continue moving slowly northwestward through Monday, 
before it attempts to squeeze in between those two ridges by 
midweek. The northwestward motion in 3-5 days will also be aided by 
an approaching upper-level trough well to the north of the system. 
Only a small change to the right of the previous NHC track forecast 
has been made, and the latest forecast is close to the latest HFIP 
Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model.
 
Relatively dry air and decreasing sea-surface temperatures along 
Lala's track will cause continued weakening.  The shear will 
continue to be weak, and Lala will be moving into an area of colder 
upper-tropospheric temperatures, so those positive factors will be 
enough so that only gradual weakening is expected over the next 
several days.  No major changes are made to the previous NHC 
intensity forecast, which lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.  The system is now forecast to lose its convection and 
become post-tropical in about 5 days, as suggested by the GFS and 
ECMWF simulated satellite imageries.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 31.0N 172.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 31.6N 173.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 32.4N 174.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 33.0N 174.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 33.6N 175.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 34.4N 176.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 35.1N 176.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 37.0N 178.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 38.8N 179.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen