Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 211445
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026
 
Since the previous advisory, Lala has maintained a relatively steady 
presentation on infrared satellite imagery, with a ragged eye and a 
ring of cool cloud tops encircling the center of the hurricane. The 
initial intensity of 85 kt is a bit higher than the subjective 
Dvorak estimates from HFO (T4.0/65 kt) and JTWC (T4.5/77 kt), but 
closer to the objective satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS. 
Hurricane Lala is also interacting favorably with an upper-level 
trough.

The influence of the trough interaction appears to be slightly 
accelerating the system towards the north-northeast. The estimated 
forward motion for this advisory is 030/11 kt, which is forecast to 
continue through later this morning or this afternoon. By Saturday, 
a quick turn to the north and then the northwest is expected as the 
trough exits to the east and a mid-level ridge builds just south of 
the Aleutian Islands. Lala will then decelerate slightly as the 
ridge remains the primary steering feature through the remainder of 
the forecast period. The track forecast is again adjusted slightly 
to the right of the previous forecast, mainly due to the current 
motion positioning the system more north-northeast at the initial 
time. The new track forecast closely follows the HCCA and TVCN aids.
 
The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear combined with 
an expansive area of somewhat dry mid-level air appears to be having 
little effect on the robust inner core of Hurricane Lala. This is 
likely due to the favorable trough interaction. As the trough moves 
away from the system, the shear is expected to decrease 
dramatically, with gradually cooling sea surface temperatures and 
ambient dry air likely to be the only hindrances through 120 h. The 
intensity forecast, as a result, shows steady weakening, and I would 
not be surprised if Lala decays slower than forecast. The intensity 
forecast is on the higher side of the guidance envelope, which 
often struggle to capture these favorable trough interactions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 27.6N 170.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 28.9N 171.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 30.4N 171.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 31.4N 172.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 32.1N 173.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  24/0000Z 32.7N 174.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 33.5N 175.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 35.0N 176.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 37.0N 178.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Cangialosi