Advisories

000
WTPA42 PHFO 190834
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Lala Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026 
 
Lala is an impressive hurricane tonight with a very clear eye and
cold cloud tops in the surrounding ring of convection.  Although
recent images have shown some weakening of the thunderstorms in the
southwestern quadrant, all of the best intensity estimates
(HFO, JTWC, DMINT, DPRINT) were near 115 kt at 6z, so the initial
wind speed is raised to that value.
 
The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 8 kt, steered
primarily by a mid-level ridge centered to the north. A gradual
turn toward the north is expected by Thursday as a mid- to
upper-level trough weakens the ridge.  Late this week, Lala is
likely to turn back toward the north-northwest or northwest as the
trough cuts off, and Lala moves around its northeastern periphery.
The biggest change to the forecast is a westward adjustment at
long range, though not nearly as far west as the latest Google
DeepMind solution.  There remains considerable spread regarding the
timing and location of the eventual turn back towards the
north-northwest or northwest due to the complicated flow regime.
 
Recent satellite imagery suggests Lala could be at the beginning of
an eyewall replacement cycle, though there any microwave passes are 
inconclusive.  Regardless, most of the models suggest Lala is near
peak intensity with warm waters somewhat balancing the moderate
shear conditions and a dry mid-level environment.  After 24 h, Lala
is expected to move over gradually cooler waters while interacting
with the aforementioned trough, which should keep the hurricane
weakening.  The long-range forecast is challenging because the
trough interaction could allow for the system to keep more tropical
features than typical at such a high latitude in the central
Pacific, with very cold upper-level temperatures and
lower shear countering sub 25C waters.  At this point, a gradual
lessening of the winds is shown through the end of the forecast,
but is of low confidence due to the variety of possibilities with
the upcoming trough interaction.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 20.9N 169.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 21.8N 170.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 23.1N 171.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 24.5N 172.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 26.1N 171.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 28.1N 171.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 30.1N 171.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 32.2N 174.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 34.0N 176.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake