Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 100250
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026
 
Rachel has begun accelerating toward the northeast this evening. 
After a day or two of relatively unimpressive convection, shower and 
thunderstorm activity has increased near and east of the center, 
with cold cloud top temperatures below -65 C. However, dry mid-level 
air and moderate southwesterly wind shear continue to inhibit the 
development of organized deep convection around the center. Recent 
objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 33-42 
kt. The intensity is maintained at 40 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm is moving northeastward, or 50/08 kt. Rachel is 
positioned to the southeast of a strengthening closed mid-level low 
moving southeastward off the coast of California. A rapid 
acceleration toward the northeast then north-northeast is expected 
over the next 24-36 h as the low rounds the base of the trough. This 
motion should bring Rachel inland over northern Baja California late 
Saturday or early Sunday. Interaction with the low will subject 
Rachel to considerable wind shear, likely causing the low- and 
mid-level centers to decouple. The low-level center is likely to 
disintegrate as it encounters the Peninsular Ranges of northern 
Baja, while the mid-level center continues northeastward into the 
southwestern U.S. Track guidance remains similar to the previous 
cycle, with the hurricane regional models, the GFS, and the ECMWF on 
the left side of the envelope, and the GDMI and HCCA on the right. 
However, the spread is beginning to narrow, with guidance 
increasingly converging on landfall location in northern Baja. The 
latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, 
and lies near the middle of the guidance. 
 
A modest increase in intensity is expected over the next 24 h as 
Rachel interacts with the closed low, which will likely provide 
favorable upper-level dynamics and an increase in mid-level 
moisture. In addition, anomalously warm waters prevail offshore of 
Baja California. Rachel is forecast to strengthen into a strong 
tropical storm up through landfall, despite a significant increase 
in wind shear. After landfall, Rachel is expected to weaken rapidly 
as it moves inland and encounters the mountainous terrain, while the 
mid-level low continues into the southwestern U.S. Strong, gusty 
downslope winds may develop in the lee of the mountain ranges and 
extend into the deserts. However, Rachel is forecast to lose its 
tropical characteristics shortly after landfall. The latest NHC 
forecast intensity is near the middle of the guidance envelope. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja
California Peninsula and extreme Southern California at tropical
storm strength Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of northern Baja California, Mexico where
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California 
and portions of northwest Mexico where a Tropical Storm Watch is in 
effect.
 
2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are
expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior
portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of
higher terrain, Saturday night and Sunday.
 
3. Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the
Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula
through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of
rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban
flooding.
 
4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along
the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal
flooding, through early next week.  Please consult products from
your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 23.8N 123.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 25.3N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 28.9N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 33.9N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Adams