Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 080841
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Dry air continues to eat away at Rachel's convection. Satellite 
imagery over the last couple of hours depicts noticeable degradation 
across the western semicircle, with deep convection weakening 
throughout the storm as seen through warming cloud-top temperatures. 
While TAFB's subjective Dvorak intensity estimate was unchanged at 
4.0/65 kt, objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have trended downward. 
As a result of this, combined with the weakening trend seen through 
satellite imagery, the initial intensity was set at 60 kt, and 
Rachel has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

The initial motion was estimated at 290/7 kt. Rachel appears to have 
gained a slight amount of speed since last advisory, its motion 
driven primarily by high pressure anchored over the southwestern US. 
However, a mid- to upper-level trough currently sweeping across the 
Pacific is forecast to pick up Rachel and turn it to the northeast 
in approximately 24 hours. This will coincide with an increase in 
forward speed. While track guidance continues to exhibit a fair 
amount of spread after this trough interaction, skilled guidance has 
become more aligned on a solution since the last advisory. The 
latest NHC track forecast nudges Rachel's trajectory more towards 
HCCA and GDMI, which results in a slight shift toward the right as 
the storm the storm approaches northern Baja California. 

As Rachel continues to move about in an environment characterized by 
cooling SSTs and dry mid-level air, its convection is expected to 
further degrade, thus inducing further weakening. Once the 
aforementioned trough shifts Rachel's path, vertical wind shear is 
also expected to increase substantially, leading to even further 
weakening as the storm approaches northern Baja California and 
southern California. Simulated satellite imagery even suggests that 
Rachel may lose its deep convection altogether by the time it hits 
land, however strong winds and heavy rain can still be expected 
wherever Rachel makes landfall, either as a tropical storm or a 
post-tropical cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast reflects a 
more steady weakening trend compared to the previous advisory, with 
Rachel forecast to become post-tropical between 72 and 96 hours, or 
shortly after making landfall. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of extreme northern Baja 
California and Southern California at or near tropical storm 
strength over the weekend, potentially bringing strong winds and 
coastal flooding to portions of those areas. Gusty winds could 
spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States into 
early next week.
 
2. Moisture associated with Rachel will spread over portions of the 
Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula 
through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of 
rainfall and a threat of flash and urban flooding.
 
3. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of
Southern California and northern Baja California through the
weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 21.8N 123.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 22.5N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 22.9N 124.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 24.0N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 26.4N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 30.2N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 39.9N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Roberts