Stormlio

Advisories

Rachel

76 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 058 Oct 11, 02:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 057A Oct 11, 11:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 057 Oct 11, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 056A Oct 11, 05:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 056 Oct 11, 02:43 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 055A Oct 10, 11:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 055 Oct 10, 08:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 054A Oct 10, 05:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 054 Oct 10, 02:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 053A Oct 10, 11:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 053 Oct 10, 08:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 052A Oct 10, 05:58 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 052 Oct 10, 02:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 051A Oct 9, 11:45 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 051 Oct 9, 08:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 050A Oct 9, 05:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 050 Oct 9, 02:56 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 049 Oct 9, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 048 Oct 9, 02:45 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 047 Oct 8, 08:52 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 046 Oct 8, 02:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 045 Oct 8, 08:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 044 Oct 8, 02:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 043 Oct 7, 08:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 042 Oct 7, 02:52 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 041 Oct 7, 09:00 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 040 Oct 7, 02:35 AM UTC 
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 070235
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Convective coverage has expanded somewhat across Rachel's northern 
semicircle. However, the storm's deepest convection remains 
concentrated across its southern half, indicative of northeasterly 
shear entraining dry air into the northern portion of the cyclone. 
The subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimate from TAFB was 
4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 70 to 
75 kt. Given these intensity estimates and very little change in the 
overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 70 
kt.
 
The initial motion was estimated at 285/5 kt. Rachel continues to
be steered by high pressure anchored over the western United States.
However, by the end of the week, a large mid- to upper-level trough
is forecast to approach from the northwest, causing Rachel to slow
down before turning sharply northeastward. The system should then
gain forward speed as it moves toward Baja California and southern
California. Little change was made to the latest NHC track forecast,
other than to adjust it slightly toward the HCCA guidance.

The environment ahead of Rachel is expected to remain hostile, 
defined by dry mid-level air and cooling SSTs. Once Rachel makes 
its forecasted turn to the northeast, vertical wind shear is 
expected to increase as well, driven heavily by the aforementioned 
trough. As a result, steady weakening is expected to continue, and 
Rachel is forecast to become post-tropical by Saturday. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous 
advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 20.4N 120.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 20.8N 121.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 21.4N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 21.9N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 22.3N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 22.5N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 23.1N 124.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 25.6N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  12/0000Z 29.6N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs
NHC Advisory 039 Oct 6, 08:31 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 038 Oct 6, 02:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Oct 6, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Oct 6, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Oct 5, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Oct 5, 03:14 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Oct 5, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Oct 5, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Oct 4, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Oct 4, 02:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Oct 4, 08:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Oct 4, 02:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Oct 3, 09:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Oct 3, 02:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Oct 3, 08:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Oct 3, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Oct 2, 08:31 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Oct 2, 02:51 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Oct 2, 08:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Oct 2, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Oct 1, 08:36 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Oct 1, 02:48 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Oct 1, 08:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Oct 1, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Sep 30, 08:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Sep 30, 02:56 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013A Sep 30, 11:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Sep 30, 08:49 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012A Sep 30, 05:52 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Sep 30, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011A Sep 29, 11:42 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Sep 29, 08:48 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010A Sep 29, 05:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Sep 29, 02:52 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009A Sep 29, 11:44 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Sep 29, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008A Sep 29, 05:52 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Sep 29, 02:50 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007A Sep 28, 11:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Sep 28, 08:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006A Sep 28, 05:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Sep 28, 02:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005A Sep 28, 11:25 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Sep 28, 08:42 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004A Sep 28, 05:47 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Sep 28, 02:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Sep 27, 08:36 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Sep 27, 02:44 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Sep 27, 08:55 AM UTC