Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 020235
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM MST Thu Oct 01 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that the convective structure associated
with Rachel has changed little over the past several hours. A ragged
eye surrounded by deep convection with cloud-top temperatures as
cold as -85 C persists, although the coverage of the coldest cloud
tops has decreased slightly. The subjective Dvorak intensity
estimate from TAFB is T5.5/102 kt, which aligns with the latest
objective estimates. Given these estimates and the relatively steady
satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 105 kt.
 
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/3 kt. Little change 
in motion is expected during the next day or so while the system 
remains within a weak steering environment. Thereafter, a mid-level 
ridge is forecast to build to the north, supporting a more westward 
track with the forward speed gradually increasing through the 
remainder of the forecast period. A gradual bend toward the 
west-northwest is forecast between 96 and 120 h as the ridge begins 
to weaken. The track guidance remains in generally good agreement on 
this scenario, although some differences remain in the timing of the 
acceleration. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the 
previous prediction and lies near the HCCA and GDMI aids.
 
Environmental conditions should remain largely favorable for some 
additional strengthening during the next 24 h. Some 
east-northeasterly vertical wind shear may continue to affect the 
cyclone during this time, although Rachel's well-established 
inner-core structure should allow for additional strengthening in 
the short term. Thereafter, increasingly dry mid-level air is 
forecast to begin wrapping into the system, while some 
east-northeasterly shear could persist. These factors should 
gradually disrupt the inner-core structure and induce a weakening 
trend. Increasingly marginal sea surface temperatures later in the 
forecast period should support continued weakening through day 5. 
The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the 
previous advisory, showing Rachel reaching a peak intensity of 115 
kt within the next 12 h. This peak remains above the intensity 
guidance, with the forecast thereafter gradually trending toward the 
upper end of the guidance envelope.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0300Z 19.5N 109.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 19.5N 110.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 19.5N 111.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 19.6N 112.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 19.8N 113.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 19.9N 114.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 20.2N 117.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 20.8N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs