Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 091456
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026
 
Satellite images indicate that Rachel is struggling to maintain deep 
convection, with only limited and shallow convection remaining near 
the center of circulation. A scatterometer pass received shortly 
after the previous advisory indicated peak winds of around 43 kt. 
Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 44 kt, 
while the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T2.5/35 kt. Given the 
scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this 
advisory.

The storm is moving northeastward at an estimated 055/4 kt. A 
deepening mid-to upper-level trough moving into the eastern Pacific 
toward the western United States is expected to steer Rachel 
northeastward to north-northeastward with an increasing forward 
speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the 
system is expected to move inland over northern Baja California late 
Saturday or early Sunday before continuing northeastward into the 
southwestern United States on Sunday. There has been a northward 
shift in the latest track guidance, with the global and hurricane 
regional models now bringing the center near the U.S./Mexico border 
or into extreme southern California. The latest NHC track forecast 
has been nudged northward and lies between the global and regional 
hurricane models to the left, and the HCCA and GDMI slightly to the 
right. Given this track forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been 
issued for portions of northern Baja California and southern 
California. There will be a sharp gradient in the wind field, with 
the strongest winds anticipated to remain primarily in the eastern 
and southern semicircles of the circulation.

Rachel remains embedded within a very dry air mass, with mid-level 
relative humidity values in the lower 30 percent range. Sea surface 
temperatures of around 24-25C will also limit convective 
organization. However, interaction with the aforementioned deepening 
trough is expected to increase mid-level moisture and improve 
upper-level divergence, allowing Rachel to produce intermittent 
bursts of deep convection and maintain tropical cyclone status. 
Furthermore, there are anomalously warm waters just offshore of 
northern Baja California for this time of year, running roughly 6-7C 
above normal. There has been a notable upward trend in the intensity 
guidance from the global and regional models this cycle, and the NHC 
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. As the system approaches the 
coast, increasing vertical wind shear is expected to displace the 
remaining convection downshear toward the northeastern portion of 
the circulation. Rachel is forecast to remain a strong tropical 
storm as it makes landfall. Once inland, rapid weakening is 
expected, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical over 
the southwestern United States. The latest NHC intensity forecast 
lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope, reflecting the 
complex interactions between Rachel and the approaching trough, as 
well as the inherent uncertainty in how models handle these 
processes.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja 
California Peninsula and southern California at tropical storm 
strength Saturday night, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect 
from San Jose de Las Palomas, Mexico northward into southern 
California to the San Diego/Orange County Line. 

2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are 
expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior 
portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of 
higher terrain, Saturday night and Sunday.

3. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will spread 
over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja 
California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to 
increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential of flash and 
urban flooding.

4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along 
the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California.  
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal 
flooding, through early next week.  Please consult products from 
your local weather office.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 22.8N 124.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 23.4N 123.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 25.1N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 28.5N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 33.3N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0000Z 38.1N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly