Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 060235
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026
 
The visible satellite presentation for Rachel has become far less
impressive than it was earlier today. The eye of the hurricane has
started to fill in again and the deep convection has become
asymmetric based on the infrared imagery. Using a combination of
the objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial
intensity has been held at 80 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is moving westward at 8 kt steered by a high pressure
system to the north-northeast of the cyclone. This area of high 
pressure is expected to keep Rachel moving generally westward to 
west-northwestward for the next several days. However, towards the 
end of the week, that high pressure system should weaken as a mid- 
to upper-level trough amplifies near the west coast of the United 
States. As a result, Rachel is expected to slow down and then turn 
northeastward at the end of the forecast period. The current NHC 
forecast track is similar to the previous track, but adjusted based 
on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.

The cyclone is expected to move into a region with drier air and 
significantly cooler sea-surface temperatures. Therefore, the 
current NHC intensity forecast has Rachel progressively weakening in 
a similar trend to the previous forecast. The intensity forecast is 
on the upper end of the guidance envelope, but is very close to the 
HCCA forecast aid. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 20.4N 117.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 20.5N 119.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 20.6N 120.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 21.0N 121.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 21.8N 124.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 22.2N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 22.7N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 24.2N 122.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch