Advisories

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 092345
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rachel Intermediate Advisory Number 51A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026
 
...RACHEL STARTING TO ACCELERATE TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 123.7W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas
northward to the U.S./Mexico Border
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to
the San Diego/Orange County Line
* East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to
Puerto Penasco
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California,
and Southern California should continue to monitor the progress of
Rachel.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was
located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 123.7 West. Rachel is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general 
northeast to north-northeast motion, with a significant increase in 
forward speed, is expected over the next couple of days. On the 
forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to approach the 
northern Baja California Peninsula or Southern California late 
Saturday or early Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is possible the next day or so, but rapid 
weakening forecast after the storm moves inland over the 
southwestern United States on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of 
western Baja California within the Tropical Storm Warning area 
starting Saturday evening or night. Tropical storm conditions are 
also possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in extreme 
Southern California and eastern Baja California beginning late 
Saturday night or early Sunday. Strong gusty winds associated with 
the system are expected to spread over interior portions of the 
Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, from 
this weekend into early next week.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of
Baja California this weekend.
 
Rachel and associated moisture of the system will also bring
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5
inches in portions of the Southwest United States this weekend. This
will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash
and urban flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and 
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero.
 
SURF: Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast 
of Southern California and northern Baja California through the 
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major 
coastal flooding, through early next week.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Adams